The main contributions of this paper are to introduce growth into a crisis framework and to derive the contingency plans for consumption and investment in a manner consistent with the stochastic nature of the state of the economy. The conclusion is that expected deviations from trend in the...

It is well accepted that exchange rate policy in many emerging markets has been characterized by shifts between a stronger and weaker commitment to peg. This raises the following questions, which we address in our paper: Does intervention policy exhibit clearly defined and periodic shifts? What...

The objective of this paper is to empirically test across alternative, apparently observationally equivalent theories of currency crises. Theories of crises are often difficult to distinguish from each other based on the behavior of commonly used predictors. Using a comprehensive data set on...

The early start of the process of bank restructuring and privatization in Hungary provides a longer and richer amount of evidence than that available for any other transition economy. The authors analyze the dynamics of bank restructuring in Hungary with a focus on the role played by foreign...

The authors apply regime-switching methods to a monetarist model of exchange rates and identify well-defined intervention policy cycles. The policy response indices include a standard exchange market pressure-based index and a model-based volatility ratio that is endogenized relative to Japan,...

This paper addresses two questions: are currency crises predicted by increases in a central bank's external and contingent liabilities relative to assets, and do these "balance sheet effects" generate persistent output losses following a crisis? I find empirical evidence that the answer to both...

Peace came accompanied not only by the end to the human drama associated with the conflicts, but also by a significant economic dividend, a much needed development in a region where per capita gross domestic product (GDP) had stagnated between 1970 and 1990 and where two countries (El Salvador...

This article studies the evolution of the private saving rate in India during 1960-95. Its distinctive feature is that it proposes three new measures of private saving, which are incremental improvements to the (naive) national accounts measure. The improvements consist of accounting for capital...