This article reviews the assumptions and methodologies underlying EMU probability calculators,' which infer from financial data the probability of specific countries joining the European Monetary Union. Some historical evidence is presented in support of the expectations hypothesis for...

This article reviews the assumptions and methodologies underlying "EMU probability calculators," which infer from financial data the probability of specific countries joining the European Monetary Union. Some historical evidence is presented in support of the expectations hypothesis for...

We analyze the feedback mechanisms between economic downturns and financial stress for several euro area countries. Our study employs newly constructed financial condition indices that incorporate banking variables extensively. We apply a non-linear Vector Smooth Transition Autoregressive...

We analyze the feedback mechanisms between economic downturns and financial stress for euro area countries. Our study employs newly constructed financial condition indices that incorporate extensively banking variables. We apply a nonlinear Vector Smooth Transition Autoregressive (VSTAR) model...

We analyze the feedback mechanisms between economic downturns and financial stress for several euro area countries. Our study employs newly constructed financial condition indices that incorporate banking variables extensively. We apply a non-linear Vector Smooth Transition Autoregressive...