We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005-10. We measure how accurately the model predicts sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, focusing in particular on the five countries in the...

This article provides a short overview of "riba", the principal feature of Islamic banking law. Riba refers to certain prohibitions against charging and paying interest on loans and prohibitions against certain other transactions to protect debtors. Sources of Islamic law are reviewed to explain...

This paper examines time-varying measures of term premiums across ten developed economies. It shows that a single factor accounts for most of the variation in expected excess returns over time, across the maturity spectrum, and across countries. I construct a global return forecasting factor...

We examine some of the macro-financial dimensions of sovereign risk and propose a conceptual framework that captures risks other than just the default risk. Morphed under a multi-dimensional notion of sovereign risk, we argue that the existing empirical methodologies to measure sovereign risk...

Now there is no part of our economic system which works so badly as our monetary and credit arrangements; none where the results of bad working are so disastrous socially; and none where it is easier to propose a scientific solution. (J. M. Keynes: Speech to the Liberal Party, December 1923, The...

Global current account imbalances have been at the forefront of policy debates over the past few years. Many observers have recently singled them out as a key factor contributing to the global financial crisis. Current account surpluses in several emerging market economies are said to have...

There are two issues that are of central importance in term-structure analysis. One is the modelling and estimation of the current term structure of spot rates. The second is the modelling and estimation of the dynamics of the term structure. These two issues have been addressed independently in...

This is a top-level and short review (hopefully an eye-opener) of the factors that affect the Dollar-Euro exchange rate in the near future. It seems that the US is better positioned, than the Euro Zone, to face the current illiquidity crisis. Moreover, over the period of this crisis it is...

This study explores the determinants of corporate bond spreads in emerging markets economies. Using a largely unexploited dataset, we find that corporate bond spreads are determined by firm-specific variables (i.e., profitability, capitalization, leverage, size and volatility of equity), bond...

This paper looks at the dramatic decline in global real interest rates in recent years from a historical perspective and examines the various factors that may account for this trend. We show that current levels of real interest rates on long-term bonds in advanced economies are not low by...