Fama and French (2002) estimate the equity premium using dividend growth rates to measure the expected rate of capital gain. We use similar methods to study the value premium. From 1941 to 2002, the expected HML return is on average 5.1% per annum, consisting of an expected-dividend-growth...

We study the interactions between the stock market and the labor market. When aggregate risk premiums are time-varying, predictive variables for market excess returns should forecast long-horizon growth in the marginal benefit of hiring and thereby long-horizon aggregate employment growth....

Within the standard search and matching model, time-to-build implies that high aggregate risk premiums should forecast low employment growth in the short run but high employment growth in the long run. If there is also time-to-plan, high risk premiums should forecast low net hiring rates in the...

We construct firm-specific measures of expected equity returns using corporate bond yields, and replace standard ex post average returns with our expected-return measures in asset pricing tests. We find that the market beta is significantly priced in the cross section of expected returns. The...

In this paper, we compare four months of Reuters EFX high frequency indicative data with D2000-1 inter-dealer transaction data for DEM/USD and GBP/USD. Contrary to previous studies, we find, using various information measures, that the matched tick-by-tick indicative data bear no qualitative...