A financial constraint that prevents access to external funds induces non-classical measurement error in average q as a proxy for unobservable marginal q. Unlike classical measurement error, this measurement error biases upward the coefficient on average q in a univariate regression of...

This paper analyzes an important class of models in which expectations play an important role. Topics included in the analysis are tests of: (1) rationality of forecasts in either market or survey data, (2) capital market efficiency, (3) the short-run neutrality of monetary policy and, (4)...

Research on capital formation has long been a major focus of studies sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research because of the crucial role of capital accumulation in the process of economic growth. The papers in this volume examine the influence of taxes on capital formation, with...

This paper develops a tractable stochastic overlapping generations model to analyze the equilibrium equity premium and growth rate of the capital stock in the presence of a defined-benefit Social Security system. If the Social Security Trust Fund increases the share of its portfolio held in...

Various tax policies provide consumers with forms of insurance. Social security has the payoff characteristics of an annuity. The income tax provides consumers with a degree of Income insurance because the government shares part of the individual's income risk. Redistributive taxes can be used...

For a firm that cannot raise external funds, cash on hand serves as precautionary saving. We derive a closed-form expression for the target level of cash on hand in the presence of persistent cash flows. Contrary to conventional wisdom, a mean-preserving increase in the volatility of cash flow...