This paper uses a Binary Classification Tree (BCT) model to analyze banking crises in 50 emerging market and developing countries during 1990-2005. The BCT identifies key indicators and their threshold values at which vulnerability to banking crisis increases. The three conditions identified as...

Although the economic growth literature has come a long way since the Solow-Swan model of the fifties, there is still considerable debate on the ""real'' or ""deep"" determinants of growth. This paper revisits the question of what is really important for strong long-term growth by using a Binary...

This paper builds a Bayesian VAR estimation model of growth for Canada, by focusing specifically on the role of external and domestic financial indicators, including credit conditions. A variance decomposition shows that financial conditions explain one-third of the total variability in...

The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a common currency, the EC dollar, which has been pegged to the U.S. dollar at the same rate for more than three decades. This paper examines the influence of the peg on ECCU price stability, and analyzes whether absolute Purchasing...

A growing number of countries are adopting flexible exchange rate regimes because flexibility offers more protection against external shocks and greater monetary independence. Other countries have made the transition under disorderly conditions, with the sharp depreciation of their currency...

A growing number of countries are adopting flexible exchange rate regimes because flexibility offers more protection against external shocks and greater monetary independence. Other countries have made the transition under disorderly conditions, with the sharp depreciation of their currency...

This paper assesses the nature of fiscal discipline under alternative exchange rate regimes. First, it shows in a simple theoretical framework that fiscal agencies under a currency union with a fixed exchange rate can have the largest incentive to overspend or ""free-ride"" (compared to those...

This paper identifies the institutional and operational requisites for transitions to floating exchange rate regimes. In particular, it explores key issues underlying the transition, including developing a deep and liquid foreign exchange market, formulating intervention policies consistent with...

The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a common currency, the EC dollar, which has been pegged to the U.S. dollar at the same rate for more than three decades. This paper examines the influence of the peg on ECCU price stability, and analyzes whether absolute Purchasing...

Has the unprecedented financial globalization of recent years changed the behavior of capital flows across countries? Using a newly constructed database of gross and net capital flows since 1980 for a sample of nearly 150 countries, this paper finds that private capital flows are typically...