Using ten years of FX transactions data we demonstrate that a large share of the FX forward discount bias can be accounted for by order flow. A simple microstructure-based decomposition suggests that order flow creates a timevarying risk premium that is correlated with the forward discount. The...

We discuss how Whittle's (Whittle, 1990) approach to risk-sensitive optimal control problems can be applied in economics and finance. We show how his analysis of the class of Linear Exponential Quadratic Gaussian problems can be extended to accommodate time-discounting, while preserving its...

We study a generalization of Kyle's (1985) model to the case in which the specialist is risk-averse and does not set the transaction price according to semi-strong form efficiency. We see that Kyle's call auction market is no longer a robust market structure, as linear Bayesian equilibria do not...

We extend Kyle's (Kyle, 1985) analysis of sequential auction markets to the case in which a risk-averse insider possesses private information on the liquidation value of a number of risky assets. We confirm: i) in a multi-asset setting, Holden and Subrahmanyam's counter-intuitive result that...

We propose a simple structural model of exchange rate determination which draws from the analytical framework recently proposed by Bacchetta and van Wincoop (2003) and allows us to disentangle the liquidity and information effects of order flow on exchange rates. We estimate this model employing...

In this paper we present a dynamic discrete-time model that allows to investigate the impact of risk-aversion in an oligopoly characterized by a homogeneous non-storable good, sticky prices and uncertainty. Our model nests the classical dynamic oligopoly model with sticky prices by Fershtman and...

We extend Chau and Vayanos' (Chau and Vayanos, 2008) analysis of an asset market with a strategic insider to the case in which she is risk-averse. As she finds it optimal to trade more aggressively and reveal her private information at a faster pace than her risk-neutral counterpart,...

In this paper we characterize the preferences of a pessimistic social planner concerned with the potential costs of extreme, low-probability climate events. This pessimistic attitude is represented by a recursive optimization criterion à la Hansen and Sargent (1995) that introduces...

In this paper we characterize the preferences of a pessimistic social planner concerned with the potential costs of extreme, low-probability climate events. This pessimistic attitude is represented by a recursive optimization criterion à la Hansen and Sargent (1995) that introduces...

We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....