The joint subjective probabilities for negative GDP growth during two consecutive quarters obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are evaluated as predictors of cyclical downturns in the economy using the prequential approach of Dawid (1984) and the skill score decomposition...

We propose autocorrelation-robust asymptotic variances of the Brier score and Brier skill score, which are generally applicable in circumstances with weak serial correlation. An empirical application in macroeconomics underscores the importance of taking care of serial correlation. We find that...

This study examines the education gradient in three chronic conditions – diabetes, hypertension, and high cholesterol. In the analysis, we take into account diagnosed as well as undiagnosed cases, and we use methods that account for the possibility that unmeasured factors exist that are...

By using a panel data on a number of freestanding health clinics in New York State over 1984-87, the authors have estimated the production function for ambulatory care after controlling for unmeasured clinic-specific managerial efficiency. They found significant differences in management...

We develop a monthly output index of the U.S. Transportation sector over 1980:1-2002:4 covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indexes for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index matches very well with the annual...