Using monthly data over 1978:01-1996:12 we examine the usefulness of the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) in predicting aggregate consumption expenditure and its components. Bivariate causality tests in a linear model show the indicator value of ICS in predicting durables consumption. We...

Book Review of David Glasner, Business Cycles and Depressions: An Encyclopedia, (ed.), Garland Reference Library of Social Science (Vol. 505), Garland Publishing Inc., New York & London, 1997, pp. XV+779, $95.00(cloth), ISBN 0-8240-0944-4

The authors compare the estimated after-tax ex ante real interest rates and the inflation forecasts generated by two alternative approaches: (1) the rational expectations model in which the real rate is assumed to have an autoregressive structure, and (2) by utilizing the Livingston survey data...

Transportation plays a central role in facilitating economic activities across sectors and between regions, and is thus essential to business cycle research. Using four coincident indicators representing different aspects of the transportation sector that include an index of transportation...

A monthly output index for the US Transportation sector over January 1979-June 2003 is reported covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indexes for freight and passenger are also constructed. The strong cyclical movements observed in the transportation output...

The interst rate effects of the first four moments of the subjective probability distribution of inflation forecasts from the ASA-NBER survey are examined over the period 1968:4-1985:4. Using Tre asury bill yields as the nominal rate variable in the context of a re duced form Fisher equation,...

We estimate a multistage sequential logit model reflecting the structure of the disability determination process of the Social Security Administration (SSA). The model is estimated using household survey information exact-matched to SSA records on disability adjudications from 1989 to 1993....

By using a panel data on a number of freestanding health clinics in New York State over 1984-87, the authors have estimated the production function for ambulatory care after controlling for unmeasured clinic-specific managerial efficiency. They found significant differences in management...

We develop a monthly output index of the U.S. Transportation sector over 1980:1-2002:4 covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indexes for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index matches very well with the annual...