Using structural VARs, I find that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect quickly and strongly interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market. The price level and real output in...

We decompose by origin the sources of the variation in real aggregate output and aggregate price level in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We find that a sizable fraction of the variation is attributable to external shocks, especially so for aggregate price level. We show that euroarea...

Using structural VARs, I find that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect quickly and strongly interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market. The price level and real output in...

Models of trade and factor flows based on differences in factor endowments give clear predictions as to how globalization affects inequality and development. Models in which productivity differences between countries drive trade and factor flows gave more ambiguous predictions. Unfortunately,...

This paper examines the roles of pegged exchange rate regime and capital account opening inducing persistent RER appreciation in the lead-up to the 1997 currency crisis in Thailand. The three-sector (primary, manufacturing, and nontradable) economy-wide model is constructed and policy simulation...

In this paper, we use panel data to empirically analyze the stability of the export functions of LDCs for the period 1980-2004 using the nonstationary panel time series analysis. We find that the use of panel data for the region of the LDC clearly supports a cointegrating relationship. Our...

Panel data for individual Chinese provinces from 1980 to 2007 was used to estimate the saving-investment model used by Feldstein and Horioka (1980), shed light on changes to China's domestic capital mobility since the adoption of the Open Door Policy, and determine whether there has been any...

Just when China’s leaders receive conflicting signals of “overheating” and “below-potential growth”, they encounter tremendous external pressure to revalue the Renminbi (RMB) substantially. Our conclusion is that the major macroeconomic challenges have their roots in China’s...

Cet article etudie les enjeux en matiere d'ajustement associes au choix d'une strategie de promotion des exportations. Il analyse l'impact sur la production et l'emploi d'une deterioration des termes de l'echange et d'une chute des entrees de capitaux etrangers. En l'absence de contrainte sur...

This paper examines the long-run stability of import demand function in least developed countries (LDCs) using recently developed panel cointegration techniques. We test for cointegration using two data sets: a) annual data for 15 countries from 1965 to 2004; and b) annual data for 22 countries from...