attain local stationarity and bounded mean values. The model is applied to the analysis of inflation dynamics. Allowing for …

The evaluation of forecasts performance of market expectations about the Brazilian inflation rate (Focus survey) is …) showed that, in the period 2000.1 2005.4, several models had superior forecast ability than the mean of market inflation rate …

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …

a TFP shock, generate marked inflation persistence. In contrast, an indirect tax and an oil price shock appear much less …This paper analyses the response of inflation in the euro area to five macroeconomic shocks through the use of results … persistent and a social security shock generates less inflation persistence in the majority of the countries (although some weak …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. …

switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and …

This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin … Price Statistics for the euro area, the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices for the US and daily World Market Prices of …

In this paper, I apply univariate and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast inflation in Vietnam. To … properties of inflation in Vietnam. Then, I compute the pseudo out-of-sample root mean square error (RMSE) as a measure of … forecasting models from among the different candidates. I find that VAR_m2 is the best monthly model to forecast inflation in …

The hierarchical structure of the Colombian Consumer Price Index (CPI) makes possible to calculate inflation as a … inflation using a lineal combination of the forecasts of these components, i.e. a "bottom to top" approach. In this paper, we … compared with an aggregate forecast using a SARIMA model. Our results show that a "bottom to top" method to forecast inflation …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman … filter procedure is applied to filter the future paths of CPI components, given projected headline inflation obtained by …