We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is … beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic …

This article proposes a reading of the armed conflict from an evolutionary design that takes into account the concept … of private protection agencies in the works of Schelling/ Nozic/Gambetta. Their aim is to assess the dynamics of conflict … relative failure of the paramilitary reintegration involves using new analytical models (argumentation, game theory and …

Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began … decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the … thirty-years preceding the conflict (1972-2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is …

Individuals have different psychological predispositions for conflict, or peaceabilities. Whether they actually engage … in conflict depends on the (institutional) context. We show how peaceabilities and context interact when players differ … conflict. Consequently, for the same change in peaceabilities, the context can produce opposite predictions regarding peace and …

Does ethnic structure affect the occurrence of civil conflict and, if so, how? This study develops an agent-based model … inequality and crosscuttingness. Specifically, I simulate conflict as a function of spontaneous economic disparities between … effect of (bidimensional) ethnic structure on conflict, which has been largely dismissed in recent scholarship. By varying …

I study information disclosure as a means to create conflict. A sender has information about two parties' relative …

This paper presents a novel approach to accounting for subnational conflict exposure and provides new insights into the … causal medium-run effects of conflict on economic development. The existing literature has not reached a consensus on whether … civil conflict can permanently alter economic growth trajectories. This study identifies the source of this disagreement as …

The energy transition increases the demand for minerals from ethnically diverse, conflict-prone developing countries …. We study whether and where mining is possible in such countries without raising the risk of civil conflict. We proceed in … three steps: First, we propose a theoretical model to predict the occurrence and location of conflict events on the …

conflict exposure (ACE) among Turkish conscripts. Our empirical framework identifies the causal impact and isolates the … evidence that ACE fosters parochialism, measured by increased opposition to peaceful means of conflict resolution, animosity …