We present a model of dynamic investment and production in which producers may have biased beliefs in which they overextrapolate recent demand conditions into the future. This bias leads producers' beliefs to exhibit insufficient mean reversion, as these producers underestimate the degree of...

This paper proposes a new semi-parametric identification and estimation approach to multinomial choice models in a panel data setting with individual fixed effects. Our approach is based on cyclic monotonicity, which is a defining convex-analytic feature of the random utility framework...