We study whether dividend yield (DY) can predict aggregate stock returns while controlling for the effects of structural breaks in the parameters and bias induced by autocorrelation in the predictor variable. To do so we apply the Bai and Perron (BP) (1998, 2000) methodology to test for...

This study applies linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to examine the dynamic relation between London Metal Exchange (LME) cash prices and three possible predictors. The analysis uses matched quarterly inventory, UK Treasury bill interest rates, futures prices and cash prices for the...

No prior research has (1) studied the relation between gold and stocks for the four severe bear markets since 1960s, (2) used different segments of stock markets simultaneously for analysis and (3) implemented a system of equations to control for exogenous and endogenous variables to investigate...

Using a momentum threshold autoregression model, we find evidence showing that there is an asymmetrical mean reversion behavior in return on equity (ROE). Results show that the speed of adjustment of ROE towards the long-term mean is slower in the ROE increasing regimes than in the ROE...

The effect of employee bonus plans may be difficult to ascertain empirically if the size of bonus is not large enough in magnitude compared to base salary. This study makes use of data from Taiwan where employee bonus payments are not only mandated by law but are quite often several times a...

The present study focuses on the trading of at-the-money straddles using options on foreign currency futures, namely British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Japanese Yen. The financial performance and economic significance of a direct profit forecast trading strategy are examined. This strategy uses...

This paper retests the signaling hypothesis of dividends by examining whether managers change dividends to signal their expectation of earnings prospects using a simultaneous-equation approach. This approach allows us to more clearly test the earnings prospects signaling hypothesis and...

Results of research on whether changes in earnings can predict future stock returns are inconclusive. We add to this debate by using long-term data from 1871 to 2004 to examine the predictive power of changes in earnings in periods of intrinsic bubbles and in periods absent intrinsic bubbles....