In this paper we investigate the forecast performance of nonlinear error-correction models with regime switching. In particular, we focus on threshold and Markov-switching error-correction models where adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is nonlinear and discontinuous. Our simulation study...

This paper proposes a new procedure for detecting the presence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles via an analysis of the properties of the relevant observable time series. The procedure is based on random coefficient autoregressive models. An empirical application of the procedure to...

In this paper we propose a contemporaneous threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. The model is a multivariate generalization of...

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions, this paper evaluates the effects of a rule that incorporates not only the interest rate but also the legal reserve requirements as instruments of monetary policy. It is found that reserve requirements can be used to...

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions, this paper evaluates the effects of a rule that incorporates not only the interest rate but also the legal reserve requirements as instruments of monetary policy. It is found that reserve requirements can be used to...

We examine several continuous-time term structure models in which the short rate is subject both to continuous changes and to discrete shifts. Several regime-switching term structure models are developed, with regime-dependence in various combinations of their drift and diffusion parameters. We...

​We develop and estimate a multifactor affine model of commodity futures that allows for stochastic variations in seasonality. We show conditions under which the yield curve and the cost-of-carry curve adopt augmented Nelson and Siegel functional forms. This restricted version of the model is...

This paper reconsiders the empirical evidence on the asymmetric output effects of monetary policy. Asymmetric effects is a common feature of many theoretical models, and there are many different versions of such asymmetries. We concentrate on the distinctions between positive and negative...