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Using a new data set on investor sentiment we show that institutional and individual sentiment proxy for smart money and noise trader risk, respectively. First, using bias-adjusted long-horizon regressions, we document that institutional sentiment forecasts stock market returns at intermediate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262954
We report results of an internet experiment designed to test the theory of informational cascades in financial markets (Avery and Zemsky, AER, 1998). More than 6000 subjects, including a subsample of 267 consultants from an international consulting firm, participated in the experiment. As...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263070
Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263203
We use weekly survey data on short-term and medium-term sentiment of German investors in order to study the causal relationship between investors' mood and subsequent stock price changes. In contrast to extant literature for other countries, a tri-variate vector autoregression for short-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263537
This paper examines the long-run dynamics and the cyclical structure of various series related to the US stock market using fractional integration. We implement a procedure which enables one to consider unit roots with possibly fractional orders of integration both at the zero (long-run) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264167
We test the no-trade theorem in a laboratory financial market where subjects can trade an asset whose value is unknown. Subjects receive clues on the asset value and then set a bid and an ask at which they are willing to buy or to sell from the other participants. In treatments with no gains...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264465
We examine whether consumer confidence - as a proxy for individual investor sentiment - affects expected stock returns internationally in 18 industrialized countries. In line with recent evidence for the U.S., we find that sentiment negatively forecasts aggregate stock market returns on average...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264951
This paper provides micro-econometric evidence on the relevance of non-market interaction for the timing of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the French and German primary equity markets. The surge of IPO volume in the late 1990s appears to be consistent with rational expectations, not with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265432
A healthy financial system encourages the efficient allocation of capital and risk. The collapse of the house price bubble led to the financial crisis that started in 2007. There is a large empirical literature concerning the relation between asset price bubbles and financial crises. I evaluate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266065
This article reviews the history of the recent shift to electronic trading in equity, foreign ex- change and fixed-income markets. We analyze a new data set: the eSpeed (Cantor Fitzgerald) electronic Treasury network. We contrast the market microstructure of eSpeed with the tradi- tional voice...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266349