During the last decade, markets for covered warrants (bank-issued options) have flourished in Europe and Asia. In these markets, investors often face a choice between many instruments that differ only slightly from each other. Based on retail trades in call options on the German DAX index, this...

Markets for over-the-counter derivatives have flourished during the last decade, especially in Europe and Asia. In these markets, investors often face a choice between many instruments that differ only slightly from each other. Based on retail trades in call options on the German DAX index, this...

Little is known about the economic sources that may generate the abnormal returns observed in put index options. We show that the learning process followed by investors may be one such source. We develop an equilibrium model under partial information in which a rational Bayesian learner prices...

We examine probabilistic forecasts for battleground states in the 2020 US presidential election, using daily data from two sources over seven months: a model published by the Economist, and prices from the PredictIt exchange. We find systematic differences in accuracy over time, with markets...

This study calibrates the term structure of risk premia before and during the 2007/2008 financial crisis using a new calibration approach based on credit default swaps. The risk premium term structure was flat before the crisis and downward sloping during the crisis. The instantaneous risk...

This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over...

In this paper we examine the problem of partially hedging a given credit risk exposure. We derive hedges which satisfy certain optimality criteria: For a given investment into the hedge they minimize the remaining risk, or vice versa. This is motivated by the fact that it is a core business of...

We develop a new approach to pricing and hedging contingent claims in incomplete markets framework the no-arbitrage arguments that have been developed in complete markets leads us to defining the concept we are able to extend the no-arbitrage ideo to a world of incomplete markets in such a way...

The aim of this paper is the valuation and hedging of defaultable bonds and options on defaultable bonds. The Heath/Jarrow/Morton-framework is used to model the interest rate risk, and the time of default is determined by the first jump time of a point process. (...)