Using 114 years of U.S. stock market data we try to relate movements in stock prices to changes in technology. We find measures of technological progress explain 37% of the 3.9% annual growth in the stock market over the 1885-1998 period, the "Jazz-Age" (1918-1934) entrants were not overvalued,...

We model merger waves as reallocation waves, and argue that mergers spread new technology in a way that is similar to that of the entry and exit of firms. We focus on two periods: 1890-1930, during which electricity and the internal combustion engine spread through the U.S. economy, and...

The authors find that supply risk in the market for Treasury bills adds between 10 basis points and 40 basis points to the standard deviation of the T-bill interest rate. The risk will probably increase unless the Fed expands the set of assets that it uses to conduct open market operations.

The term "new economy" has, more than anything, come to mean a technological transformation, and in particular its embodiment in the computer and the internet. These technologies are more human capital intensive than earlier ones and have probably hastened the pace of the shift in the U.S....

U.S. Treasury securities are nominal assets that are subject to two sources of risk: inflation risk, and bond-supply risk. Inflation risk is well-known, but supply risk has received little attention. For reasons we shall discuss in the body of the paper, the amount of securities offered to the...

We analyze mergers over the past century in a growth model that emphasizes technological change. We explain the positive relation between mergers and stock prices, the positive relation between internal growth of firms and their acquisitions, and the positive relation of mergers with other...

Growth of technological variety offers more scope for the division of labor. And when a division of labor requires some specific training, the technological specificity of human capital grows, and, with it, probably the firm specificity of that capital grows. We build a simple model that...

Investment of US firms responds asymmetrically to Tobin’s Q: investment of established firms—“intensive” investment—reacts negatively to Q whereas investment of new firms—“extensive” investment—responds positively and elastically to Q. This asymmetry, we argue, reflects a...

Our paper shows that investment by new firms responds to Tobin's Q much more elastically than does investment by incumbent firms. To explain this fact we build a model in which the investment-supply curve of incumbent firms is highly elastic and positively related to Q. However, when variation...