I investigate how local supply shocks in the globally distributed production of commodities are incorporated into CME futures prices. I exploit that the soybean market share of the US (Argentina) decreased (increased) between 1996 and 2010, and use rain, which tends to increase output, as a...

Investors face a number of challenges when seeking to estimate the prospective performance of a long-only investment in commodity futures. For instance, historically, the average annualized excess return of individual commodity futures has been approximately zero and commodity futures returns...

Investors face numerous challenges when seeking to estimate the prospective performance of a longonly investment in commodity futures. For instance, historically, the average annualized excess return of the average individual commodity futures has been approximately zero and commodity futures...

The futures-implied petroleum cracking spread is examined for overreaction and subsequent mean reversion via a mechanical trading rule: when the implied margin is greater (less) than estimated refining costs a short (long) spread position is entered. The trading rule results in statistically...

Granger causality (GC) tests are widely used when it comes to empirically address the dynamic relationship between speculative activities and pricing on commodity markets. However, the sheer number of studies and their heterogeneity makes it extremely difficult – if not impossible – to...

The close relationship between commodity future and cash prices is critical for the effectiveness of risk management and the functioning of price discovery. However, in recent years, commodity futures prices, across the board, have appeared increasingly detached from prices on physical markets....

The paper develops a price discovery model for commodity futures markets that accounts for two forms of limits to arbitrage caused by transaction costs and noise trader risk. Four market regimes are identified: (1) effective arbitrage, (2) transaction costs but no noise trader risk, (3) no...

To compare the impact of fundamental news with the publication of traders' positions in an event study framework, a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model with t-distributed error terms is applied to corn, soybean, and wheat futures returns from January 1996 to...

We examine how media coverage of fluctuations in the price of agricultural commodities affects these prices and their volatility. We develop a unified empirical framework to analyze the media's effects on both returns and volatility using insights from the literature. We use daily prices of...

Long-only commodity futures returns have been very disappointing over the last decade, leading some to wonder if it was a mistake to invest in commodities. The poor performance is the result of poor “income returns” and not of falling commodity prices. This observation may be surprising for...