We address the exchange rate determination puzzle by examining how information is aggregated in a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) setting. Unlike other DGE macro models, which enrich either preference structures or production structures, our model enriches the information structure. The model...

In a market with symmetric information about fundamentals, can information-based trade still arise? Consider bond and FX markets, where private information about nominal cash flows is generally absent, but participants are convinced that superior information exists. We analyze a class of...

This paper presents a new numerical method for solving stochastic general equilibrium models with dynamic portfolio choice over many financial assets. The method can be applied to models where there are heterogeneous agents, time-varying investment opportunity sets, and incomplete asset markets....

We study the efficacy of sterilized foreign exchange intervention in a model where exchange rates are pushed away from their fundamental level by a rational bubble. The bubble is sustained by uncertainty about the post-crash price and about the market absorption capacity. We show that the bubble...

This paper provides a new analysis of index-linked debt in the U.K.. I begin by clarifying the theoretical links between the observed prices of conventional and index-linked debt, and the term structure of real interest rates. Based on this analysis, I then describe a new empirical methodology...

We examine how medium-term movements in real exchange rates and GDP vary with international financial conditions. For this purpose, we study the international transmission of productivity shocks across a variety of IRBC models that incorporate different assumptions about the persistence of...

Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium model for the term structures of nominal and real interest rates that incorporates regime-switching into the dynamics of the state variables. The model generates time-varying risk premia via changes in the covariance structure of the state...

Most studies of the expectations theory of the term structure reject the model. However, the significance of the rejections depend strongly upon the form of the test. In this paper, we use the pattern of rejection across maturities to back out the implied behavior of time-varying risk premia...

This paper examines alternative methods for making inferences about the value and dynamics of (unobserved) credit quality from market prices. Using data on Brady bonds issued by Mexico, Venezuela, and Costa Rica, we show that estimates of credit quality from of a simple model (often used by...