-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …

lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of … forecast to form expectations is a reasonable thing to do if a forecaster is not able to come up with fully rational …

lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of … forecast to form expectations is a rather smart thing to do if cognitive limitations and biases cause any attempt to build an … own rational forecast to fail. …