We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …

This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study … the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of … distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in …

the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid, but output is still below pre-shock level five years later. Unemployment … female unemployment than male. The negative effects on GDP and unemployment are felt less in countries with larger first …

. We show that ERTEs stabilize unemployment rates by allowing workers to remain with their employers in highly affected …

of COVID-19. This occasional paper assesses the impact of this crisis on key labour market variables, such as (un-)employment …

This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study … the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of … distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in …