Most countries hold large gross asset positions, lending in domestic currency and borrowingin foreign. Thus, their balance sheets are exposed to nominal exchange rates. We argue thatwhen asset markets are incomplete, nominal exchange rate exposure allows countries topartially insure against...

The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified...

Most countries hold large gross asset positions, lending in domestic currency and borrowing in foreign. Thus, their balance sheets are exposed to nominal exchange rates. We argue that when asset markets are incomplete, nominal exchange rate exposure allows countries to partially insure against...

This paper updates the Reported Social Unrest Index of Barrett et al (2020), reviewing recent developments in social unrest worldwide since the start of the COVID-19 Pandemic. It shows that unrest was elevated during late 2019, coincident with widespread protests in Latin America. Unrest then...

This paper characterizes a general class of macroeconomic models with incomplete information, when the information process includes endogenous variables. I derive conditions for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium, which apply even when the model contains endogenous state variables, and I...

Dynamic stochastic models with full information and rational expectations (FIRE) are not as well determined as is commonly believed. If the assumption of causality is relaxed so that prices and decisions may anticipate future shocks, then FIRE models generally feature multiple equilibria. The...