The goal of this article is to develop formal tests to evaluate the relative in‐sample performance of two competing, misspecified, nonnested models in the presence of possible data instability. Compared to previous approaches to model selection, which are based on measures of global...

This review provides an overview of forecasting methods that can help researchers forecast in the presence of nonstationarities caused by instabilities. The emphasis of the review is both theoretical and applied, and we provide several examples of interest to economists. We show that modeling...

Recently, it has been suggested that macroeconomic forecasts from estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models tend to be more accurate out-of-sample than random walk forecasts or Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR) forecasts. Del Negro and Schorfheide (2013) in particular...

In this dissertation, we analyze whether the noise ratio statistic of Durlauf and Hall (1989), NRT, can be used as a non-nested model selection tool in a similar fashion to the Rivers and Vuong (2002) framework. For this purpose, we first show that, when scaled by the sample size T, NRT is...

The increased importance of fragmentation in world trade has created an interest among trade economists to explain the determinants of trade in intermediate goods. A substantial part of trade in intermediates between the US and OECD countries takes the form of intra-industry (IIT). I have...