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We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047326
We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050233
With the aim to provide a detailed understanding of global financial cycles and their relevance over time, we analyse co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and interest rates across 17 advanced economies over 130 years. Using a time-varying dynamic factor model, we observe global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832636
We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments’ popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010398976
the world is going from one crisis to another. Thus one must consider not only the economics of crisis but as well a kind …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985518
. Examples include the Financial Panic of 1914, the Post-World War I/Great Influenza inflation of 1919-1920, the Dot-com bubble …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406480
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 crystallized the underlying imbalances that are currently acting to tear apart the Euro area monetary and fiscal systems by focusing markets and public attention on the core cause of the overall Euro crisis, the insolvency of the Euro area member-states...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122727
imbalances in the world economy associated with finance-dominated capitalism. From this it follows that in the near and not so … near future, the US will no longer be able to act as the driving force for world demand. In order to avoid a period of … deflationary stagnation in major parts of the world economy, we finally propose the policy package of a Global Keynesian New Deal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009549800
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009422829
The recent Global Financial Crisis (2008-2010) and the accompanying Great Recession (2008-2011) show that the level and the rate of monetary and financial systems integration deployed within the Euro area is not sustainable in the long run. Instead of acting as a buffer against external shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012990752