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makes estimation of large-scale DSGE models computationally feasible. We use our algorithm to estimate the US equity risk … historical stochastic volatility and equity risk premium series display pronounced countercyclical fluctuations …We develop a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating risk premia in dynamic stochastic general …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847324
We analyze the relationship between uncertainty and economic growth expectations in Mexico through the Growth at Risk … measures of financial conditions, of economic policy uncertainty, and of risk exposure, as well as to alternative measurements …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014391253
This paper estimates a bivariate HEAVY system including daily and intra-daily volatility equations and its macro …-augmented asymmetric power extension. It focuses on economic factors that exacerbate stock market volatility and represent major threats to … commodity markets on stock market realized volatility. Specifically, Economic Policy Uncertainty is shown to be one of the main …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012158736
Within a New Zealand business cycle context, we assess whether Hamilton's (H84) OLS regression methodology produces stylised business cycle facts which are materially different from HP1600 measures, and whether using the H84 predictor and other forecast extensions improves the HP filter's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828197
We investigate whether the boosted HP filter (bHP) proposed by Phillips and Shi (2021) might be preferred for New Zealand trend and growth cycle analysis, relative to using the standard HP filter (HP1600). We do this for a representative range of quarterly macroeconomic time series typically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014259834
The persistent nature of equity volatility is investigated by means of a multi-factor stochastic volatility model with … model a time-varying generalization of the HAR model for the realized volatility series. It emerges that during the recent … stochastic volatility model suggest that the change in the dynamic structure of the realized volatility during the financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402299
rate risk shock increases by 63 percent and the contribution of interest rate risk shocks to business cycle volatility more …Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Martín Uribe (2011) find that risk … than doubles. Hence, risk matters more in the recalibrated model. However, the recalibrated model does worse in capturing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354846
We introduce a statistical test for simultaneous jumps in the price of a financial asset and its volatility process … volatility jumps, we design and analyze a nonparametric spectral estimator of the spot volatility process. A simulation study and … important role played by price volatility co-jumps. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010384595
Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that estimated covariance matrices, obtained under … alternative orderings of variables, are systemically different when the data exhibits independent volatility dynamics … individual volatility paths becomes. This paper shows that this property is important for empirical applications as alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847411
Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are … divergent when volatility clusters idiosyncratically. It is illustrated that this property is important for empirical … multivariate stochastic volatility model is proposed as a robust alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826753