Showing 1 - 10 of 96,300
encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
product, which in turn are used as an input in the forecasting process. Such forecasts reflect and incorporate the flow of … in a synchronous way. The forecasting power of the dynamic factor model is compared with those of several other models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013483516
proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011732586
This paper presents a novel dynamic factor model for non-stationary data. We begin by constructing a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium growth model and show that we can represent and estimate the model using a simple linear-Gaussian (Kalman) filter. Crucially, consistent estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011669132
-noise dynamic factor models, commonly used in macroeconomic forecasting and nowcasting. We show analytically and in Monte Carlo … estimation accuracy. Modestly increasing the noise level also accelerates convergence. A nowcasting exercise of euro area GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249849
conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a … useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions. We develop a GDP growth Nowcasting exercise using a … compare their relative forecasting ability using the Giacomini and White (2004) test and find no significant difference in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771629
across different horizons and real-time datasets. To further improve performances when forecasting with machine learning, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362630
-time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595370
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
In this paper we propose to use the common trends of the Mexican economy in order to predict economic activity one and two steps ahead. We exploit the cointegration properties of the macroeconomic time series, such that, when the series are I(1) and cointegrated, there is a factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011885720