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encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
-consistent forecasting on a large scale. While the CDFM has a simple structure, its forecasts outperform those of a wide range of competing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012319589
conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a … useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions. We develop a GDP growth Nowcasting exercise using a … compare their relative forecasting ability using the Giacomini and White (2004) test and find no significant difference in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771629
represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …-horizon forecasting and structural models should be used in long-horizon forecasting. Our paper compareds both state-of-the art data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991248
model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119825
proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011732586
This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises …. Our main finding from a historical nowcasting simulation based on euro area GDP is that the predictive power of the survey …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846875
The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512536
The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349021
product, which in turn are used as an input in the forecasting process. Such forecasts reflect and incorporate the flow of … in a synchronous way. The forecasting power of the dynamic factor model is compared with those of several other models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013483516