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Firm expectations and economic activity
Enders, Zeno; Hünnekes, Franziska; Müller, Gernot J. - 2019
We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012001909
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Firm expectations and economic activity
Enders, Zeno; Hünnekes, Franziska; Müller, Gernot J. - 2021
We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705462
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Subjective uncertainty, expectations, and firm behavior
Lautenbacher, Stefan - 2021
Based on a new survey question in a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper introduces a novel measure of managers' subjective uncertainty. I compare this measure of business uncertainty to respondents' business expectations and document a strong negative relationship....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487869
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Subjective uncertainty, expectations, and firm behavior
Lautenbacher, Stefan - 2021
Based on a new survey question in a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper introduces a novel measure of managers' subjective uncertainty. I compare this measure of business uncertainty to respondents' business expectations and document a strong negative relationship....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012500426
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Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models
Bhandari, Anmol - 2019
This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations, and shows that biases in household beliefs have quantitatively large effects on macroeconomic aggregates. The departures are formalized using model-consistent notions of pessimism and optimism and are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903429
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Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models
Bhandari, Anmol - 2019
This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations, and shows that biases in household beliefs have quantitatively large effects on macroeconomic aggregates. The departures are formalized using model-consistent notions of pessimism and optimism and are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860805
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Speculation-driven business cycles
Bigio, Saki; Zilberman, Eduardo - 2019
Speculation, in the spirit of Harrison and Kreps [1978], is introduced into a standard real business cycle model. Investors (speculators) hold heterogeneous beliefs about firm growth. Firm ownership, and thus, the firm's discount factor varies with waves of optimism and leverage. These waves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012145301
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Speculation-Driven Business Cycles
Bigio, Saki - 2020
Speculation, in the spirit of Harrison and Kreps [1978], is introduced into a standard real business cycle model. Investors (speculators) hold heterogeneous beliefs about firm growth. Firm ownership, and thus, the firm's discount factor varies with waves of optimism and leverage. These waves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845653
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Firm expectations and news: micro v macro
Born, Benjamin; Enders, Zeno; Menkhoff, Manuel; … - 2023
Using firm-level data, we study how firm expectations adjust to news while accounting for a) the heterogeneity of news … and b) the heterogeneity of firms. We classify news as either micro or macro, that is, information about firm … expectations: Both types of news predict forecast errors at the firm level. Yet while firm expectations overreact to micro news …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014329767
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Firm expectations and news : micro v macro
Born, Benjamin; Enders, Zeno; Menkhoff, Manuel; … - 2023
Using firm-level data, we study how firm expectations adjust to news while accounting for a) the heterogeneity of news … and b) the heterogeneity of firms. We classify news as either micro or macro, that is, information about firm … expectations: Both types of news predict forecast errors at the firm level. Yet while firm expectations overreact to micro news …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014310407