Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2014
forecast combinations to vary across forecast horizons. While the latter approach is not always more accurate than selecting … mean-squared prediction error of real-time pooled forecasts is between 3% and 29% lower than that of the no-change forecast … as well as quarterly forecasts. We illustrate how forecast pooling may be used to produce real-time forecasts of the real …