property that as the forecast horizon shortens accuracy improves. On average, forecasters underpredict inflation, but this …-ahead forecasts but not for current year. Tests' results point to forecast inefficiency which is also evidenced by a tendency to … inflation rate and the extent of underprediction increases during recessions. The hypothesis of forecast efficiency is …

implications for forecast efficiency and the stock market. We find that the two sets of forecasts strongly covary over the 1984 to … aggregate earnings, the converse is not true. Additional tests suggest that analysts underreact to economists' negative forecast … revisions (i.e., aggregate earnings forecast errors are predictably more negative following economists' downward forecast …

find that their forecast properties are associated with the adverse macroeconomic conditions at the time of initial hire or …