Larger firms (by sales or employment) have higher leverage. This pattern is explained using a model in which firms produce multiple varieties and borrow with the option to default against their future cash ow. A variety can die with a constant probability, implying that bigger firms (those with...

This paper develops a model of banking frictions and banking risk. As a sort of systemic risk, changes in banking risk lead to fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. We decompose the macroeconomic effect of a banking risk shock into a pure default effect and a risk-aversion effect when...

Globally, financial institutions have increased their holdings of domestic sovereign debt, tightening the linkage between the health of the financial system and the level of sovereign debt, or the “financial sector-sovereign nexus,” during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In South Africa, the...

At a 2019 retirement security conference in Brazil, one of the authors proposed that Brazil introduce a low-cost, low-risk, simple and liquid bond innovation: “SeLFIES”— Standard of Living indexed, Forward-starting, Income-only Securities. SeLFIES would serve as the relative safe asset for...

The main motivation of this paper is to study the impact of the composition of creditors on the probability of default and the risk premium on sovereign bonds, when there is debtor moral hazard. In the absence of any legal enforcement, relational contracts work only when there are creditors who...

We investigate competitive equilibria in a special type of incomplete markets, referred to as a comonotone market, where agents can only trade such that their risk allocation is comonotonic. The comonotone market is motivated by the no-sabotage condition. For instance, in a standard insurance...

For more than 25 years, the Social Security Trust Fund has been projected to run out of money in 2033 (give or take a few years), potentially causing benefits to be severely reduced in the absence of corrective legislative action. Today (February 2024), projections are made by the Social...