We extract contextualized representations of news text to predict returns using the state-of-the-art large language models in natural language processing. Unlike the traditional bag-of-words approach, the contextualized representation captures both the syntax and semantics of text, thus...

This paper presents a simple framework for the analysis, valuation and simulation of several real options in the presence of shadow costs of incomplete information. Information costs can be viewed as sunk costs in the spirit of Merton's (1987) model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete...

We investigate expectation formation in a controlled experimental en-vironment. Subjects are asked to predict the price in a standard asset pricingmodel. They do not have knowledge of the underlying market equilibrium equa-tions, but they know all past realized prices and their own predictions....

We examine the asymmetric impact of shocks to macroeconomic expectations and their underlying dispersion on equity risk premia across different market regimes. First, we rely on a two-state logit mixture vector autoregressive model and use Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth,...

We propose a novel procedure to identify the marginal stock market investor's beliefs from observed asset prices. Our approach recovers price-consistent beliefs, i.e. the distribution of macro and financial variables that satisfy the conditional Euler equations, given a cross-section of assets,...

Introducing extrapolative bias into a standard production-based model with recursive preferences reconciles salient stylized facts about business cycles (low consumption volatility, high investment volatility relative to output) and financial markets (high equity premium, volatile stock returns,...

Many postulated relations in finance imply that expected asset returns strictly increase in an underlying characteristic. To examine the validity of such a claim, one needs to take the entire range of the characteristic into account, as is done in the recent proposal of Patton and Timmermann...

We examine the asymmetric impact of shocks to macroeconomic expectations and their underlying dispersion on equity risk premia across different market regimes. First, we rely on a two-state logit mixture vector autoregressive model and use Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth,...

Using survey forecasts, we find that systematic errors in expectations of long-term inflation and short-term nominal earnings growth are the main driver of prices and return puzzles for bonds and stocks. We demonstrate this by deriving and testing a single necessary and sufficient condition...

I set up a model in which two types of ambiguity-averse traders disagree on how to interpret a public signal. When traders first observe contradicting interpretations of the signal, they don't know whether to attribute the clash of opinions to different information processing or to information...