In this paper, we propose a binomial approach to modeling sequential R&D investments. More specifically, we present a compound real options approach, simplifying the existing valuation methodology. Based upon the same set of assumptions as prior models, we show that the number of computational...

We combine a customized survey and randomized controlled trial (RCT) to study the effect of higher-order beliefs on U.S. retail investors' portfolio allocations. We find that investors' higher-order beliefs about stock market returns are correlated with but distinct from their first-order...

Probabilities of default (PDs) of loans are of central importance for financial stability. We analyze the PDs, reported quarterly by German financial institutions to Deutsche Bundesbank. The development of PDs is modelled as an AR process of PD changes and an initial PD. Panel regressions show...

Using a unique database that includes publicly disclosed fund holdings at the end of the quarter as well as the holdings in all non-publicly disclosed months, we found that some funds could alter their portfolios in publicly disclosed months to artificially increase their Active Share scores and...

This paper explores the relationship between banks and stablecoins and their issuers, focusing on the mechanical effects on banks' capital and liquidity ratios when issuing stablecoins or collecting deposits from stablecoin issuers. The analysis reveals that converting retail deposits into...

Insurance companies often follow highly correlated investment strategies. As major investors in corporate bonds, their investment commonalities subject investors to fire-sale risk when regulatory restrictions prompt widespread divestment of a bond following a rating downgrade. Reflective of...

Probabilities of default (PDs) of loans are of central importance for financial stability. We analyze the PDs, reported quarterly by German financial institutions to Deutsche Bundesbank. The development of PDs is modelled as an AR process of PD changes and an initial PD. Panel regressions show...

As European pension systems are struggling to provide financial security in retirement under the pressure of demographic change, poverty in old age disproportionally affects women. Given these developments, private investment is becoming ever more important to securing financial means after...

This paper explores the relationship between banks and stablecoins and their issuers, focusing on the mechanical effects on banks' capital and liquidity ratios when issuing stablecoins or collecting deposits from stablecoin issuers. The analysis reveals that converting retail deposits into...

The paper describes the "Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Forecasting Dashboard (ForDas)". This tool aims at providing, on a non-commercial basis, historical and actual macroeconomic forecast data for the Germany economy to researchers and interested audiences. The database renders it...