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Market Hypothesis sense. The paper tries to show that this so-called excess volatility is to a large extend the result of the …, constant dividend growth rates as well as non-variable discount rates. It is shown that indeed volatility declines considerably … cashflow ; excess volatility ; variance bound test ; rational expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003482498
Investors' expectations on firms' cash flow growth can be biased (e.g. Bordalo et al. (2019)), yet we know little about how these biases and their asset pricing implications vary with forecast horizons. In this paper, I show that extreme expectations at all horizons beyond the current period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013323128
To explore how speculative trading influences prices in financial markets, we conduct a laboratory market experiment with speculating investors (who do not collect dividends and trade only for capital gains) and dividend-collecting investors. Moreover, we operate markets at two different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836376
To explore how speculative trading influences prices in financial markets we conduct a laboratory market experiment with speculating investors (who do not collect dividends and trade only for capital gains) as well as dividend-collecting investors. We find that in markets with only speculating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012917776
We study a class of endowment economies with long-run risks in which agents have generalized recursive smooth ambiguity preferences and heterogeneous beliefs. The expected growth rate of aggregate consumption consists of a persistent component. Agents cannot observe the component but learn about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291472
We study market pricing of fundamentals at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, incorporating possible irrational pricing behavior with adaptive expectation. Using panel data of listed stocks to overcome the limited information in aggregate time series data, we estimated key parameters of the price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244571
It is generally believed that excessive stock market volatility reflects non-mathematical market expectations that are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012862894
We study the effects of the investment horizon on asset price volatility using a Learning to Forecast experiment. We … investment horizons such bubbles do not emerge and price volatility tends to be lower. This is due to the fact that, for longer … relatively stable before participants start their prediction task, price volatility remains small, with prices close to their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825408
Volatility is an important component of asset pricing; an increase in volatility on markets can trigger changes in the … risk distribution of financial assets. In conventional financial theory, investors are considered to be rational and any … hypothesized that there are movements in risk that are driven by volatility linked to sentiment-driven noise trader activity whose …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023919
We explore the impact of fake news on asset price dynamics within the asset-pricing model of Brock and Hommes (1998). By polluting the information landscape, fake news interferes with agents' perception of the dividend process of the risky asset. Our analysis reveals that fake news decreases the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014631654