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On the Immense and Severe Confusions and Muddles About the Nature of Subjective and Objective Probability in the Theory of Rational Expectations : A Subjective Probability (Distrib...
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2018
subjective theory of probability is that the subjective probabilities must be additive, so that they are coherent, which means … frequency theory of probability, which can only hold in the very long run as one approaches infinity. Rational expectationists …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014109858
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On the Erroneous Heterodox and Post Keynesian Belief That Keynes’s Interval Valued Decision Theory in the A Treatise on Probability (1921) Was an Ordinal Theory of Probability
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2019
misinterpreted and misrepresented Keynes's introductory analysis on interval valued probability as an ordinal theory of probability ….The result of this misinterpretation and misrepresentation of Keynes's decision theory can be seen in the response of public …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858777
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The Fundamental Error of Rational Expectations Proponents Is Their Claim that They Have Discovered True Statistical Models : Given that No Model Can Be True, Talk of Having a 'True...
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2020
are useful.'Rational expectations advocates violate basic scientific approaches to theory construction and model use when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825898
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The Claim That the Diagram on Page 39 of Keynes’s a Treatise on Probability(1921) Represents ‘Keynes’s View of Probability’ (S. Bradley, 2019), Has No Support : It Represents a Ver...
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2020
A major error in analyzing how Keynes operationalized his logical theory of probability in 1921 is to assume that … ordinal theory that could only be implemented some of the time.No philosopher has ever made this error until the publication …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844301
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The Restricted Role of Caprice (Whim) in J M Keynes’s Interval Valued Theory of Probability in the A Treatise on Probability, General Theory, and in the Keynes-Townshend Correspond...
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2020
Boolean based theory of imprecise, indeterminate interval valued probability. Once the link between page 30 of Chapter III and … Pages 160-163 of Chapter XV is understood, then Keynes's use of caprice in the General Theory and the Keynes …-Townshend correspondence can be seen to be an important, but small, part of his general decision theory of the A Treatise on Probability which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835277
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Some Examples of 21st Century Philosophers Who Have Written About Keynes’s Logical Theory of Probability, but Have Skipped Part II of the A Treatise on Probability, Where Keynes Pr...
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2020
the imprecise theory of probability long before Koopman's work in 1940 or the work of I. J. Good, C. Smith ,or H.E. Kyburg …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842021
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Keynesian Uncertainty Can Only Be Represented by Imprecise, Non Additive, Interval Valued Probability or Decision Weights Like Keynes’s C : Ordinal Probability Can’t Represent Keyn...
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2020
probability, although Keynes's theory of probability can easily deal with ordinal probability with the aid of Keynes's principle …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843351