Assessing the role of uncertainty shocks as a driver of business cycle fluctuations is challenging because spikes in uncertainty often coincide with news about economic fundamentals. To tackle this problem, we exploit daily data to identify uncertainty shocks that (i) impact the VXO volatility...

Housing prices are subject to boom and bust episodes with long-lasting deviation from fundamentals. By considering a present value housing price model under noisy information, I study the macroeconomic implications of movements in housing prices related (news) and not related (noise) to future...

Labor productivity is more procyclical in OECD countries with lower employment volatility. To capture this new stylized fact, we propose a business cycle model with employment adjustment costs, variable hours and labor effort. We show that, in our model with variable effort, greater labor market...

We study the impact of the widening energy price differentials caused by the war in Ukraine on the returns of European and US firms. Using several measures of firms’ exposure to energy consumption, we show that return differentials between EU and US firms widened significantly and persistently...

China has become a major player in the global economy. The analysis, based on a new and original database of Chinese macroeconomic surprises, shows the significant impact that these surprises have on equity markets worldwide, as well as on commodity prices, on the US nominal effective exchange...

We analyze the impact of the shock to energy prices induced by the war in Ukraine on the financial performance of the major European firms listed in the Eurostoxx 600 index. We find that equity returns (CDS spread) decreased (increased) more substantially for firms characterized by high energy...

We analyze the impact of the shock to energy prices induced by the war in Ukraine on the financial performance of the major European firms listed in the Eurostoxx 600 index. We find that equity returns (CDS spread) decreased (increased) more substantially for firms characterized by high energy...