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inference that feature varying level of trade-off between estimation precision and computational speed. Using monthly data for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014314068
This paper clarifies the conditions under which the state-of-the-art approach to identifying TFP news shocks in Kurmann and Sims (2021, KS) identifies not only news shocks but also surprise shocks. We examine the ability of the KS procedure to recover responses to these shocks from data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357201
This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009008065
Local Projections (LP) is a popular methodology for the estimation of Impulse Responses (IR). Compared to the … traditional VAR approach, LP allow for more flexible IR estimation by imposing weaker assumptions on the dynamics of the data. The … this work we propose an IR estimation methodology based on B-spline smoothing called Smooth Local Projections (SLP). The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012934986
financial shocks generate effects on the economy that increase more than proportionately in the size of the shock when the shock … is negative, but not when the shock is positive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291067
We establish the identification of a specific shock in a structural vector autoregressive model under the assumption … that this shock is independent of the other shocks in the system, without requiring the latter shocks to be mutually … independent, unlike the typical assumptions in the independent component analysis literature. The shock of interest can be either …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084313
level clearly. A positive information shock which also induces increases in interest rate is perceived by private agents as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012304714
We study how shocks to corporate leverage alter the macroeconomic transmission of monetary policy. We identify leverage shocks as idiosyncratic firm-level disturbances that are aggregated up to a size-weighted country-level average to generate a Granular Instrumental Variable (Gabaix and Koijen,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014484385
shocks and study their effects on financial variables and macro variables. The first shock resembles a conventional monetary … policy shock, and the second resembles an unconventional monetary shock. The third shock leads to an increase in interest … and uncertainty decrease, and the U.S. dollar depreciates. Therefore, this third shock combines all the characteristics of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014560738
We disentangle the effects of monetary policy announcements on real economic variables into an interest rate shock … component and a central bank information shock component. We identify both components using changes in interest rate futures and … that a contractionary interest rate shock appreciates the dollar, increases the excess bond premium, and leads to a decline …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301353