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The prices of derivatives contracts can be used to estimate ‘risk-neutral' probability density functions that give an indication of the weight investors place on different future prices of their underlying assets, were they risk-neutral. In the likely case that investors are risk-averse, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104539
This paper studies the predictability of S&P500 returns using short term risk premia as a conditioning variable. We construct dividend prices using futures data and identify short term risk premia by projecting excess returns of dividend claims on their lagged prices. Regression results for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091355
corresponding to the local volatility model that allows pricing quanto derivatives consistently with the observed market equity skew … volatility model to market data and then comparing the prices of European quanto euro derivatives on the Nikkei 225 index with … significant pricing errors when compared with the local volatility model.I also compare the pricing performance of the local …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092439
We study the estimation, the dynamics, and the predictability of option-implied risk-neutral moments (variance …, skewness, and kurtosis) for individual stocks from various perspectives. We first show that it is in the estimation of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150961
realized volatility and its continuous and jump components. Considering buyer-initiated and seller-initiated trades and … investigate whether buyer and seller initiated trades as two factors of realized volatility, we investigate whether they have an … asymmetric effect on realized volatility. The stocks in the ASX50 sampled over the period January 1996 to April 2010 reveal that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138999
We propose a method for constructing an arbitrage-free multi-asset pricing model which is consistent with a set of observed single- and multi-asset derivative prices. The pricing model is constructed as a random mixture of N reference models, where the distribution of mixture weights is obtained...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144664
understand the impact of macro and microeconomic forces on risk neutral volatility. VIX often increases with macroeconomic news …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065496
equity risk-neutral volatility. The spillover channel between risk-neutral volatilities arises mainly through the government …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459960
This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. When based on daily data, the profitability of 2580 technical models has steadily declined since 1960, and has been unprofitable since .the early 1990s....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226778
This paper studies how volatility affects the risk premium in crude oil futures through a discrete-time term structure … model with long-run and short-run GARCH-type volatility components. Estimated using WTI crude oil futures data from January … document a significant positive relation between volatility and futures risk premia before May 2005, but a significant negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247149