The well-known uncovered interest parity puzzle arises from the empirical regularity that, among developed country pairs, the high interest rate country tends to have high expected returns on its short term assets. At the same time, another strand of the literature has documented that high real...

This paper investigates the relationship between the Japanese firms’ exposure to the exchange rate risk and risk management, such as choice of invoicing currency, and financial and operational hedge. The firm’s exposure to the exchange rate risk is estimated by co-movements of the stock...

This paper studies the determinants of pricing-to-market at the firm-level, with a particular focus on the role of firm-specific and policy-induced market power. We use a large dataset containing export values and quantities by product and destination for all exporting firms in 12 developing and...

This paper is the first study to use the disaggregated data of the Czech foreign trade to examine the effect of exchange rate levels and volatility on trade flows. We analyze the period from 1993 to 2013 and disaggregate the data according to trading partner and product category. The detailed...

One of the main implications of the basic target zone model developed by Krugman (1991) is that there is a trade-off between exchange rate volatility and interest rate differential volatility. Using an M-GARCH model we find evidence that such a trade-off existed, prior to the introduction of the...

In this paper, we forecast excess stock returns of S&P 500 index from January 1997 to December 2012 using both well-known traditional macroeconomic indicators and oil market variables. Based on a dynamic model selection approach, we find that the forecasting accuracy can be improved after adding...

Until recently economists focused on structural models that were constrained by a lack of high-frequency data and theoretical deficiencies. Little academic research has been invested in actually trying to build successful real-time trading models for the high-frequency foreign exchange market,...

A regular phenomenon of the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model is analyzed. The result derived by the model is proved to contradict the economic fact and that by the Balassa-Samuelson model. The BEER model cannot be used, therefore, to calculate equilibrium exchange rate.

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The...

Carry trade activities and foreign participation in local currency bonds in emerging countries have increased dramatically during the last decade. In line with this observation, we revisit the question of optimal exchange rate regime when developing countries can borrow internationally with...