We propose a new interest rate rule that implements the optimal equilibrium and eliminates all indeterminacy in a canonical New Keynesian model in which the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates (ZLB) is binding. The rule commits to zero nominal interest rates for a length of time that...

We examine the effects of a “bubble” in the foreign exchange market, defined as an exogenous process that temporarily shifts the exchange rate away from the value implied by fundamentals. The bubble process is analogous to Bernanke and Gertler's (1999) specification of an asset price bubble....

This paper addresses two issues – the time-inconsistency of optimal policy and the controllability of target variables within new-classical and new-Keynesian model structures. We can resolve both issues by delegation. That is, we design central bank loss functions by determining the two target...

We exploit data on historical revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap to examine the implications of measurement error for the design of monetary policy, using the Federal Reserve's model of the U.S. economy, FRB/US. Measurement error brings about a substantial deterioration in...

This paper reports an investigation of the effects of additive and multiplicative uncertainty upon the stabilization properties of a simple base money rule for monetary policy. Using a five-equation empirical model of the United Kingdom, it is shown that changes in the extent of additive...

This paper investigates the implications of noisy information regarding the measurement of economic activity for the evaluation of monetary policy. A common implicit assumption in such evaluations is that policymakers observe the current state of the economy promptly and accurately and can...

In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of Orphanides and Wieland, and the FRB staff model. All four models incorporate the assumptions of...

This paper evaluates a class of simple policy rules that feed back from expected values of future inflation--inflation forecast-based rules. The rules are assessed by how well they perform when the economy is buffeted by a combination of shocks, whose distribution is drawn from the Bank of...

This paper analyses the welfare performance of a set of five alternative interest rate rules in an open economy stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities. A rule with a lagged interest rate term, high feedback on inflation and low feedback on output is found to yield...

This paper assesses the implications for optimal discretionary monetary policy if the slope of the Phillips curve changes. The paper first derives a 'switching' Phillips curve from the optimal pricing decision of a monopolistic firm that faces a changing cost of price adjustment. Two states...