This paper explores the role of private credit variables as early warning indicators (EWIs) of banking crises in context of emerging economies. The performance is evaluated by using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) on long series on credit to the...

This paper exploits a quarterly panel data set for 16 OECD countries over the period 1975q1–2013q2 to explore the importance of house prices and credit in affecting the likelihood of a financial crisis. Estimating a set of multivariate logit models, we find that booms in credit to both...

In September 2009, G20 representatives called for introducing a minimum leverage ratio as an instrument of financial regulation. It is supposed to assure a certain degree of core capital for banks, independent of the controversial procedures used to assess risk. This paper discusses the...

The emergence of so-called "decentralised finance" (DeFi) and a shadow financial system of cryptocurrency exchanges and stablecoin issuers raises the challenge of how to apply technology-neutral regulation so that similar risks are subject to the same rules. This paper makes the case for...

In this study, we consider the construction of through-the-cycle ("TTC") PD models designed for credit underwriting uses and point-in-time ("PIT") PD models suitable for early warning uses, considering which validation elements should be emphasized in each case. We build PD models using a long...

The paper finds that, given New Zealand's conservative approach in implementing the Basel II framework, New Zealand banks' headline capital ratios underestimate their capital strength. A comparison with Canadian, UK and Australian banks highlights the impact of New Zealand's more conservative...

After the destructive impact of the global financial crisis of 2008, many believe that pre-crisis financial market regulation did not take the "big picture" of the system suffciently into account and, subsequently, financial supervision mainly "missed the forest for the trees". As a result, the...

The global financial crisis underlined that sound and effective bank regulation is vital to financial stability. Assessments of the global financial crisis invariably point to ineffective finance regulation and supervision as the main reasons for the onset of the crisis and its severity. In...

We investigate the risk taking incentives of "stressed banks" - the banks that are subject to annual regulatory stress tests in the U.S. since 2011. We document that stress tests effectively encourage prudent investment from stressed banks through regulatory monitoring, but also provide them...