This study builds a simultaneous equation model that establishes inter-connections among the measures of globalization, measures of democracy, human development, corruption perception index and per capita income, which in turn jointly influence social progress. The model has eleven equations in...

In this study we build a simultaneous equation model in which the measures of different aspects of globalization (attributable to KOF) and different aspects of democracy (attributable to EIU) are related in seven structural equations. A bi-directional relationship between democracy and...

The Two-Stage Least squares method for obtaining the estimated structural coefficients of a simultaneous linear equations model is a celebrated method that uses OLS at the first stage for estimating the reduced form coefficients and obtaining the expected values in the arrays of current...

I examine the role of intermediaries on the world's largest peer-to-peer online lending platform. This marketplace as well as other recently opened lending websites allow people to auction microcredit over the internet and are in line with the disintermediation in financial transactions through...

In this note we present several thought experiments involving coin-flipping to illustrate the common tendency to over-weight past data in forecasting the future, particularly in the context of investment returns. We start by describing a survey we conducted of about 700 respondents involving the...

I study identification of games of incomplete information, both static and dynamic, when there are multiple equilibria in the data. In the case of static games, I show that if multiplicity disappears at a small subset of the support of the observables, payoffs are identified. All the equilibria...

We propose a multiplex interdependent durations model with incomplete information structure. The model considers an empirical stopping game involving multiple agents making timing decisions. We characterize the unique Bayesian Nash equilibrium of the stopping game and show that the...

A sound policy for spending wealth over time is as important as a sensible investment policy. It's a complex problem for taxable individuals with finite, uncertain longevity. A good start is thinking about the simpler problem of how one would spend if immortal. This is exactly the real problem...

This paper discusses the state of the art in research in racetrack and lottery investment markets. Market efficiency and the pricing of various wagers is studied along with new developments since the Thaler and Ziemba (1988) review. The weak form inefficient market approach using stochastic...

The US Treasury effectively ”owns” about 24% of the stocks held by high income US taxable investors. Through the capital gains tax, Uncle Sam has an effective exposure of more than $1 trillion of equities. And this huge-but-silent investor might be about to get a lot bigger if capital gains...