Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In order to answer this question, this paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable estimation-driven uncertainty about two parameters: probability of default and asset-return correlation. Bayesian...

We examine the role of hedge funds as primary lenders to corporate firms. We investigate boththe reasons and the implications of hedge funds’ activities in the primary loan market. Weexamine the characteristics of firms that borrow from hedge funds and find that borrowers areprimarily firms...

This paper empirically investigates the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on thespreads of individual rms' credit default swaps (CDS). While existing literature ac-knowledges the importance of the levels of macroeconomic factors in determiningCDS spreads, we nd that the second moments of these...

This paper deals with asymptotically efficient estimation in exchangeable nonlinear dynamicpanel models with common unobservable factor. These models are especially relevantfor applications to large portfolios of credits, corporate bonds, or life insurance contracts, andare recommended in the...

The recursive prediction and filtering formulas of the Kalman filter are difficult to implementin nonlinear state space models. For Gaussian linear state space models, or for models with qualitativestate variables, the recursive formulas of the filter require the updating of a finite number...

This paper develops a dynamic trade-off model of optimal capital structure that takes intoaccount the fact that most firms have both invested assets and growth opportunities. Thesetwo sources of value react quite differently to business cycle risk. In particular, growth optionsare more sensitive...

Die Arbeitspapiere, die bisher zur Vorbereitung des dritten Basler Konsultationspapiers erschienen sind, lassen sich nach Ansicht der Autoren in zwei Gruppen unterteilen. Die eine konkretisiert wesentliche der im zweiten Konsultationspapier (CP2) vom Januar 2001 offenen Regelungen...

Die Erfassung und Berücksichtigung von Klumpenrisiken in Kreditportfolios ist einer der Punkte, mit denen sich die Kreditwirtschaft nach der Veröffentlichung desZweiten Baseler Konsultationspapiers besonders intensiv befasst. Insbesondere die Sparkassenorganisation, deren Institute in ihrer...

In this study, we examine whether changes in the investment opportunityset stemming from interest rate and credit risks are priced in the US, theUK and the Swiss equity premia by estimating both two-factor and three-factor versions of Merton’s ICAPM. The systematic pricing of credit riskis...

This paper examines latent risk factors in models for migration risk. We employ thestandard statistical framework for ordered categorical variables and induce dependencebetween migrations by means of latent risk factors. By assuming a Markov process forthe dynamics of the latent factors, the...