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Forecasting the Brent oil price : addressing time-variation in forecast performance

Manescu, Cristiana; Van Robays, Ine - 2016

This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent … generates forecasts whose performance is robust over time. The improvements in forecast accuracy and stability are noticeable in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573261

Summary of the Paper Entitled : Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate

Pincheira, Pablo M.; Jarsun, Nabil - 2021

-value theory for exchange rate determination and on the strong co-movement displayed by some commodity prices. The Chilean economy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243891

State-space implementation in forecasting carbon and gas prices in commodity markets

Azhar, Rialdi; Wisnu, Febryan Kusuma; Kesumah, Fajrin … - In: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy : IJEEP 12 (2022) 3, pp. 280-286

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285561

Can futures prices predict the real price of primary commodities?

Farag, Markos; Snudden, Stephen; Upton, Gregory B. <Jr.> - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015049108

Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation

Blaskowitz, Oliver J.; Herwartz, Helmut - 2008

Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271838

A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2014

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about market expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because the presence of a timevarying risk premium often renders the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010409922

A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566

Forecasting commodity prices using the term structure

Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen; Qadan, Mahmoud - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 14 (2021) 12, pp. 1-39

The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution … ability to forecast future performance changes over time. Specifically, between 1986 and the early 2000s the yield curve was …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012798924

A fear index to predict oil futures returns

Chevallier, Julien; Sévi, Benoît - 2013

This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010189497

Oil price forecasting using crack spread futures and oil exchange traded funds

Choi, Hankyeung; Leatham, David J.; Sukcharoen, Kunlapath - In: Contemporary economics 9 (2015) 1, pp. 29-44

Given the emerging consensus from previous studies that crude oil and refined product (as well as crack spread) prices are cointegrated, this study examines the link between the crude oil spot and crack spread derivatives markets. Specifically, the usefulness of the two crack spread derivatives...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010520870