Fiscal forecasts produced by international financial institutions came under strong criticism after the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis due to overly optimistic estimates for heavily indebted countries like Spain, Italy, and Portugal. Presently, in the face of strong divisions within the European...

The effect of forward guidance on interest rate expectations in small, open economies is often described as heterogeneous. There are examples when financial markets adjusted term structure to reflect interest rate forecasts provided in the projections published by the central banks. On the other...

During the period of policy easing in 2013 and prospective tightening in 2017−2019, Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) applied forward guidance to manage the expectations of market participants. The goal of the policy was to lower the uncertainty related to the future interest rate decisions. We...