Kremer, Mirko; Moritz, Brent; Siemsen, Enno - In: Management Science 57 (2011) 10, pp. 1827-1843
We analyze how individuals make forecasts based on time-series data. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we find that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in relatively stable environments, but underreact to...