In this paper, we sought to establish whether Africa's volatile currencies drive equity risk premia. We use the SDF framework to estimate various conditional specifications of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model through generalized method of moments technique. Our results show strong...

The poor performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models in and out-of-sample is well documented in literature. One reason for this result is the impact of ‘scapegoat' effects: that is, participants attach different weights to different macro fundamentals in different periods. On the other...

Derivatives markets in emerging economies have continued to grow since 2010, driven mostly by very strong growth in the OTC market. Emerging market currencies have become more international as offshore markets are a major contributor to FX turnover. The Chinese renminbi is actively traded within...

In the world of globalization, most business enterprises operate in more than one country, receiving foreign currency for exports and paying foreign currency for imports, and this exposes them to foreign exchange risk. Each entity and/or individual that has exposure to foreign exchange rate risk...

We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....

Recent research has confirmed the behaviour of traders that significant excess returns can be achieved from following the predictions of the carry trade which involves buying currencies with relatively high short-term interest rates, or equivalently a high forward premium, and selling those with...

This report seeks to shed light on the characteristics of currency carry trades in Latin America. Partly reflecting the degree of financial market integration and development, as well as the effects of regulation, carry trades in the region have typically been implemented by taking long forward...

The spot foreign exchange marketplaces are split into two types by their respective trading rules: markets with conventional resting orders versus markets with resting orders that include optionality. This optionality is owned by the counterparty who placed the resting order and provides the...

In this paper, we analyse the relationship between the currency carry return and volatility and liquidity risk factors. We find that both categories of risk factors are relevant to understanding and explaining carry return, with an outperformance for volatility ones especially the global FX...