We built the largest dataset of high-frequency exchange rates so far. Our sample covers the spot prices and order flows of 19 currency pairs over the last 15 years measured on Reuters and EBS at the thirty-second frequency. We show that common, price-based factors describe exchange rate dynamics...

Many of the leading models of the carry trade imply that, contrary to the empirical evidence, a country's currency depreciates in times of high consumption and output growth, a manifestation of the Backus and Smith (1993) puzzle. We propose a modification of these models to account for financial...

This paper examines the relationship between currency option's implied skewness and its future realized skewness, where the difference is known as the skewness risk premium (SRP). The SRP indicates whether investors pay a premium to be insured against future crash risk. Past investigations about...

The goal of the paper is to present the intervention strategies used by central banks in order to influence the value of the domestic currency, transparency versus discretion when it comes to publishing data about FX intervention and the cost and effectiveness of intervention. It is rarely that...

We document that intraday currency returns display systematic reversals around the major benchmark fixings, characterized by an appreciation of the U.S. dollar pre-fix and a depreciation post-fix. We propose an explanation based on constrained intermediation by foreign exchange dealers....

Over 85% of all foreign exchange (FX) transactions involve the US dollar. I show that the US dollar dominates FX trading volume because of strategic avoidance of price impact. To demonstrate this, I leverage the fact that non-dollar currency pairs can be traded indirectly by using the US dollar...

Past trends in fundamentals linked to economic activity and inflation predict currency returns. We find that a trading strategy that goes long currencies with strong economic momentum and short currencies with weak economic momentum exhibits an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.70 and yields a...

I examine the profitability of three simple foreign exchange technical trading rules (moving average, momentum, and relative strength index) before, during and after the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. The overall findings reveal that these technical indicators could produce statistically...

This paper sets forth the foundations for a transactional approach for the performance of arbitrage in foreign exchange markets. Firstly, we review both the standard model of financial arbitrage and the so-called covered-interest arbitrage environment, and we also lay bare striking shortcomings...

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the relevance of non-linear predictors of high-frequency data in foreign exchange markets. To that end, we apply nearest-neighbour (NN) predictors, inspired by the literature on forecasting in non-linear dynamical systems, to...