Using new quarterly U.S. data for the past 120 years, I show that sudden reversals in equity and credit market …. Crises and recessions often occur independently of domestic leverage, making the credit-to-GDP gap a deficient early …-warning indicator historically. The fact that equity issuance reversals predict banking crises without elevated private credit levels …

Using new quarterly U.S. data for the past 120 years, I show that sudden reversals in equity and credit market …. Crises and recessions often occur independently of domestic leverage, making the credit-to-GDP gap a deficient early …-warning indicator historically. The fact that equity issuance reversals predict banking crises without elevated private credit levels …

Using new quarterly U.S. data for the past 120 years, I show that sudden reversals in equity and credit market …. Crises and recessions often occur independently of domestic leverage, making the credit-to-GDP gap a deficient early …-warning indicator historically. The fact that equity issuance reversals predict banking crises without elevated private credit levels …

the lens of a simple real business cycle model augmented with financial shocks. A credit channel that operates on firm …

This paper studies evolving macroeconomic consequences of adverse credit spread shocks for the US economy over the past … century. The key objective is to characterize and quantify how the credit transmission mechanism has changed in shaping the … persistent leading to longer term adverse consequences. Throughout the last century credit spread shocks remained potentially the …

government spending programs have been launched worldwide and especially in the USA and Europe, with the hope to unfreeze credit …

This paper studies the equilibrium dynamics in consumer durable goods markets after aggregate credit shocks. We …