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Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-Period Forecasting Problems

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756285

Fixed-k inference for volatility

Bollerslev, Tim; Li, Jia; Liao, Zhipeng - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 12 (2021) 4, pp. 1053-1084

We present a new theory for the conduct of nonparametric inference about the latent spot volatility of a semimartingale … in local estimation blocks, our theory treats the estimation block size k as fixed. While the resulting spot volatility … estimator is no longer consistent, the new theory permits the construction of asymptotically valid and easy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795628

Predictive inference for integrated volatility

Corradi, Valentina; Distaso, Walter; Swanson, Norman R. - 2011

In recent years, numerous volatility-based derivative products have been engineered. This has led to interest in constructing conditional predictive densities and confidence intervals for integrated volatility. In this paper, we propose nonparametric estimators of the aforementioned quantities,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130718

Predictive inference for integrated volatility

Corradi, Valentina; Distaso, Walter; Swanson, Norman R. - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130720

Predictive inference under model misspecification with an application to assessing the marginal predictive content of money for output

Armah, Nii Ayi; Swanson, Norman R. - 2011 - Rev.

In this chapter we discuss model selection and predictive accuracy tests in the context of parameter and model uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130740